Arizona commercial loans coming due in 2026

The Mortgage Bankers Association's 2025 Commercial Real Estate Survey of Loan Maturity Volumes, released February 9, 2026, says 17 percent of outstanding commercial mortgages come due in 2026. MBA put that slice at $875 billion, out of $5.0 trillion, and said it is 9 percent below the $957 billion that had been scheduled to mature in 2025. MBA's chief economist, Mike Fratantoni, described 2025 as a transition year in which lenders were no longer simply extending terms. The same release puts 2027 maturities at $652 billion. Those are MBA's figures. They are not Capital Market Funds originations, and they are not a count of loans in Maricopa County or Pima County.

MBA also split the 2026 wall by who holds the loan. Of balances in each group, the release cites $396 billion at depositories (21 percent), $200 billion in CMBS, CLOs, or other asset-backed securities (25 percent), and $163 billion at credit companies, warehouse lenders, and other holders (29 percent). Life insurance companies are a smaller share: $76 billion, or 10 percent. Multifamily and health-care mortgages held or guaranteed by Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, FHA, and Ginnie Mae are smaller still: $39 billion, or 4 percent. By property type, MBA said 30 percent of hotel and motel balances, 23 percent of industrial, 17 percent of office, and 13 percent of multifamily come due in 2026. Use the split to identify your note. Do not average it into a Phoenix office forecast this office does not have.

What an Arizona owner can actually do with that survey

A bank loan and a CMBS loan are the heavy buckets in MBA's 2026 table. An agency apartment loan is in the light bucket. If your Phoenix industrial building is at a bank, or your office loan was securitized, you are closer to the part of the survey Fratantoni said is no longer being extended as a habit. If your apartments are in a Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac loan with years left, this particular maturity print is less about you. The survey does not know your maturity date. The note does.

A maturity is a payoff date, not a promise that a new loan of the same size is available. When the new lender advances less than the payoff, the difference is cash the owner brings, a different structure, or a sale. Investing in CRE, in a June 25, 2026 note on Phoenix refinancing, described that gap as the practical problem for local owners. We are not adopting that firm's rate commentary, and we are not citing a delinquency table we did not pull from the original publisher. The point we will stand behind is narrower: know the payoff, know the prepay, and know which capital source has to replace the old one.

Capital Market Funds arranges a new loan. It does not extend someone else's note, and it does not negotiate a default. If the loan is simply coming due and the property is income-producing, the path is Arizona commercial refinance. If the unpaid principal is due in one sum because the term ended before the amortization did, read commercial balloon payments due in Arizona next. City refinance pages, including Phoenix refinance, stay on the address.

What this note will not predict

MBA's economist tied the maturity volume to expected lending activity in later years. That is MBA's forecast. It is not a prediction that any Scottsdale, Tucson, or Mesa property will clear a new loan. Life companies, banks, CMBS, agency lenders, and bridge lenders do not tighten or loosen on the same day. The fourth-quarter 2026 lending update already says that about origination prints. This page is the maturity print only.

We do not publish a dollar total of Arizona loans we expect to refinance, and we do not rank sponsors who are 'ready' for 2026. The earlier origination reading, which is a different MBA release, stays on the Q2 2026 originations note. Craig Hoebing arranges the file from Scottsdale under CMB-1047342, NMLS 1445066. Sending a maturity date to this office does not commit a lender.